In a dramatic turn of events, Syrian opposition forces have seized control of Aleppo’s military airport and academy, delivering a significant blow to the Assad regime and its Russian backers. Images of Russian and Syrian flags hanging side by side and abandoned documents in a Russian advisors’ office illustrate the hasty retreat of Assad’s forces as rebels advanced into key areas.
The scenes captured in a video from the military office reflect the deepening crisis faced by the Syrian regime, which also poses a threat to Russia’s regional influence. Aleppo, which witnessed intense battles from 2012 to 2016, has once again become a focal point of conflict. The city was recaptured by Assad’s forces in 2016 with substantial Russian air support, marking a significant victory at the time.
Symbolic Significance of Russian Support
When Assad regained control of Aleppo, it was a symbolic milestone for Moscow, which celebrated it as proof of Russia’s resurgence as a global power. Russian President Vladimir Putin praised the operation, emphasizing Russia’s decisive role in the city’s “liberation.”
However, the recent rebel offensive raises questions about Moscow’s ability to maintain its foothold in Syria. Analysts suggest the loss of Aleppo represents a “major reputational setback” for Russia, as its image as a reliable ally begins to falter.
Russia’s Role in Syria
Russia’s intervention in Syria in 2015 was a turning point in the conflict. It provided Assad with the military support necessary to regain large portions of territory and allowed Russia to assert itself as a dominant player in the Middle East. The war also served as a testing ground for Moscow’s military strategies, including the deployment of Wagner Group mercenaries, which advanced both military and economic interests.
However, since shifting its military focus to Ukraine, Russia has minimized its efforts in Syria, relying on a limited presence to maintain stability. This shift has left it vulnerable to challenges like the current rebel offensive.
The balance of power has shifted further after recent Israeli strikes targeting Iran-backed militias and Hezbollah in Syria. With Iran’s regional influence weakened, Moscow now faces a precarious situation. The rebels’ unexpected advance highlights Russia’s lack of preparedness to counter a large-scale assault.
Russia’s response has included intensified airstrikes on opposition strongholds, such as Aleppo and Idlib. However, resource constraints and the redeployment of troops and equipment to Ukraine have limited its capacity for a more robust intervention.
In Moscow, frustration is mounting over the loss of territory that was painstakingly reclaimed over years of Russian involvement. The dismissal of General Sergei Kisel, who oversaw Russian forces in Syria, underscores the dissatisfaction within Russia’s leadership. Pro-government figures have criticized the Assad regime, accusing it of inefficiency and corruption.
Despite mounting challenges, analysts caution against drawing conclusions about a permanent decline in Russia’s influence in Syria and the region. Future developments will depend on how Moscow and its allies respond in the coming weeks. Leaders in the Middle East and Africa are reportedly reserving judgment, waiting to see if Russia can stabilize the situation.
The recent developments in Aleppo are more than just a territorial battle; they represent a critical test for Russia’s strategy in the Middle East. The days ahead will determine whether Moscow can reclaim its position or if its influence in Syria and the broader region will face a long-term decline.
