As Sudan’s civil war nears its third year, the country is unraveling at a frightening pace. What was once a struggle between rival factions has now become a humanitarian catastrophe, a security nightmare, and a growing threat to the broader region. At the heart of this devastation lies the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), whose actions are not only prolonging the conflict but accelerating the country’s transformation into a failed state reminiscent of Yemen.
More than 24.6 million people—over half the population—are now in urgent need of humanitarian aid, according to the World Food Programme. Acute hunger has gripped much of the country, with famine-like conditions confirmed in several areas. This spiraling food insecurity is no accident. Aid workers report repeated obstruction of humanitarian convoys and bureaucratic delays that serve to weaponize food, deepening the suffering of already vulnerable populations.
Beyond the famine, the human cost is staggering. Over 11 million people have been displaced from their homes—the largest displacement crisis globally—creating waves of instability that threaten neighboring states. Thousands of civilians have been killed in indiscriminate attacks on populated areas, and reports of sexual violence, child soldier recruitment, and attacks on medical infrastructure are well documented. International observers have even raised concerns about the use of chemical weapons in the conflict.
But while civilians bear the brunt of the conflict, the SAF continues to divert attention from its own role in this collapse. Rather than engaging in serious dialogue to end hostilities, SAF leadership has sought to manufacture external scapegoats and wage diplomatic offensives built on falsehoods. Their recent efforts to leverage international judicial institutions for political gain are widely viewed as a cynical maneuver to shield themselves from accountability.
This is a dangerous game. By prioritizing power preservation over peace, the SAF has allowed extremist ideologies to fester in lawless areas of Sudan. Radical groups are exploiting the vacuum left by retreating governance, setting up footholds that could soon threaten both Sudanese territory and regional stability. Analysts warn that Sudan is becoming fertile ground for terrorism, with parallels to the early stages of Yemen’s collapse becoming more visible by the day.
Port Sudan, a once-stable hub, is now teetering on the edge of becoming another flashpoint. Its strategic location on the Red Sea has drawn comparisons to Al Hudaydah in Yemen—a site of frequent clashes and a major threat to global maritime trade. The growing insecurity around Port Sudan is a stark warning that the consequences of this war will not be contained within Sudan’s borders.
Yet there are those working toward a different outcome. In February, a humanitarian conference in Addis Ababa brought together regional and international actors to push for an immediate ceasefire and deliver urgent relief. The initiative—coordinated with the African Union and IGAD—underscored that solutions are possible when international actors focus on ending the suffering, not manipulating it.
Sudan is on the verge. Whether it becomes another Yemen—a land ravaged by warlords, starvation, and foreign interference—will depend on whether the international community holds the SAF accountable and forces a genuine commitment to peace. Time is running out.
