US and Europe Brace for Escalation of Russian Hybrid Warfare Following Ukraine Missile Strikes
The US State Department has expressed “intense concern” over Russia’s hybrid warfare campaign against the West, amid fears of retaliation following Ukraine’s use of US-made long-range Atacms missiles on Russian territory. This marked the first such use after restrictions on the missiles were lifted by the Biden administration.
Russia vowed an “appropriate” response to the policy shift, amplifying nuclear rhetoric by revising its nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for weapon use. Western officials, however, anticipate that Russia’s reaction may not be limited to the Ukrainian battlefield but could extend to other global arenas.
Potential hybrid tactics might include escalated sabotage and assassinations in Europe or increased support to adversaries in regions like the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific. European foreign ministers meeting in Brussels on Tuesday jointly condemned Russia for “systematically attacking European security architecture.”
In Washington, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller highlighted concerns over Russia’s sabotage efforts, referencing the recent destruction of undersea communication cables in the Baltic Sea. He warned of accountability should such actions continue.
Heightened Risk of Hybrid Attacks
US and European intelligence agencies are investigating the damage to the Baltic cables, widely suspected to be sabotage. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte pointed to a growing “hybrid war” campaign targeting infrastructure across Europe, the Baltic, and even the Arctic.
Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and other officials underscored the likelihood of premeditated sabotage, dismissing accidental causes like ships’ anchors. Experts warn Europe remains underprepared for an escalation in sabotage, cyberattacks, and targeted killings tied to Moscow’s hybrid warfare strategy.
Ukraine Deploys Long-Range Missiles
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed the acquisition and deployment of Atacms missiles but refrained from directly addressing their use in reported strikes. A US official suggested that two missiles were intercepted, while the remaining successfully hit ammunition depots in Bryansk, with Russian independent media reporting overnight explosions.
Moscow’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov framed the missile strikes as a signal of the West entering a “new phase of war” and promised repercussions. Despite the saber-rattling, analysts like Anton Barbashin argue that Moscow is unlikely to escalate to nuclear options but may target Ukrainian infrastructure during the harsh winter months.
Western Unity and Military Aid
Despite Russian threats, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer reaffirmed unwavering support for Ukraine, dismissing Moscow’s nuclear rhetoric. The US has also indicated that its approval of Atacms strikes aligns with countering North Korean troop deployments to Ukraine, viewed as a direct escalation by Pyongyang.
Meanwhile, the US and Europe are reportedly preparing additional military and strategic measures, including potential deployment of British Storm Shadow missiles, to fortify Ukraine’s defensive and offensive capabilities.
