The United Kingdom is facing the sobering reality of rebuilding its defense capabilities after years of underinvestment, flawed procurement, and persistent recruitment challenges have left its armed forces weakened and its defense industry reliant on foreign support. As geopolitical threats intensify and allies like the U.S. push Europe to take greater responsibility for its own security, Britain is attempting to reverse a decades-long decline.
Decades of Decline, Renewed Urgency
The war in Ukraine has exposed major gaps in NATO members’ military readiness — and for the UK, the shortfalls are particularly alarming. Former Royal Navy head Alan West described the state of Britain’s military as “catastrophically hollowed out,” with depleted stockpiles and insufficient capacity to rapidly replenish them. Security experts believe the country is currently unable to defend itself from a ballistic missile attack.
Despite unveiling a new defense review with ambitious goals — including increasing ammunition production, investing in drones, expanding the submarine fleet, and strengthening the nuclear deterrent — the UK’s military remains far behind where it needs to be. The review outlines the creation of six new factories for munitions production, but no timeline has been given for when they will become operational.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer recently announced a plan to raise defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, up from 2.3%, calling it the most significant military investment since World War II. However, this still lags behind NATO’s new target of 5%, which includes 3.5% on core defense and 1.5% on related security domains. Poland, by comparison, is already spending over 4% of GDP.
Industrial Revival and Strategic Gaps
At the heart of the UK’s defense rebuild is BAE Systems’ ammunition factory in Washington, near Newcastle. The plant is now running 24/7 for the first time since the Iraq War. It produces 155mm artillery shells, which are in global short supply due to the war in Ukraine. BAE plans to increase production sixteen-fold, supported by a £3.2 billion, 15-year contract with the Ministry of Defence (MoD). However, the plant still depends on explosive materials imported primarily from the U.S. and France.
BAE is also working on technology that could reduce the cost and dependency of explosive production by replacing nitrocellulose, traditionally derived from Chinese cotton fibers. This innovation is not expected to be operational before the end of 2026.
Obstacles on the Road to Recovery
Alongside industrial rebuilding, the UK’s defense sector faces recruitment and equipment challenges. The armed forces are losing personnel faster than they can replace them. Major procurement programs have also stumbled, including a £5.5 billion armored vehicle project plagued by delays and design flaws, and drone systems that underperform in adverse weather.
A £17 billion funding gap outlined in the MoD’s last equipment plan adds to the budgetary pressures. Much of the new spending will go toward plugging existing shortfalls rather than enabling transformative capability upgrades.
Strategic Dependence and Limited Scale
The UK’s defense model has long depended on international collaboration, and experts argue that rebuilding a fully self-sufficient defense industry is unrealistic. “We’re too small,” said Matthew Savill of the Royal United Services Institute. BAE and other manufacturers stress the need for long-term government contracts and international partnerships to justify investments in next-generation military technologies.
Companies like Leonardo and Airbus support the UK’s goals but warn that promised funding must reach industry more quickly and predictably. Clive Higgins, CEO of Leonardo UK, emphasized that the UK should focus on areas where it can act as a “national champion” while leveraging European partnerships.
A Shift in Strategy
The UK is now attempting to reverse years of policies that prioritized sourcing munitions from abroad. For example, its defense industrial strategy in 2005 led to the closure of the Bridgwater explosives factory, once famed for producing World War II “bouncing bombs.” Today, BAE’s new robotic shell production lines represent a step forward, but scaling output quickly remains a challenge.
Fiona Hill, co-author of the new defense review and former U.S. National Security Council official, said the UK must remain flexible and respond to threats as they evolve. “We may decide some things need to be fast-forwarded,” she said, warning that the country is now more vulnerable than at any time in recent history.
A Heavy Price Tag
Reaching NATO’s 5% spending target would require the UK to spend an additional £350 billion by 2032. According to Bloomberg Economics, such an increase would put the UK on an “explosive” debt trajectory. Dan Hanson, the group’s chief UK economist, warned the government would face difficult trade-offs: raise borrowing and risk investor backlash or hike taxes and provoke public resistance.
As the government balances strategic goals with fiscal constraints, Britain is racing to reestablish a defense posture capable of meeting modern threats — a task that will take time, resources, and political resolve.
“Hard power is about showing people you can deliver,” said Katarzyna Pisarska, chair of the Warsaw Security Forum. Whether the UK can rise to that challenge remains to be seen.
