European governments are preparing for a tense period of negotiations with U.S. President Donald Trump, as the continent grapples with critical challenges across defense, economic, and security fronts. Over the next five weeks, European leaders will engage with Washington on three interconnected issues: continued U.S. support for Ukraine, trade policy, and America’s military commitment to NATO.
Mounting Concerns Over Trump’s Strategy
Trump’s unpredictable negotiating style has raised fears in Brussels that he may link concessions across these separate domains—using progress in one area to exert pressure in another. European officials worry they could be forced to compromise on fundamental values or strategic interests to preserve U.S. cooperation.
“We see [Ukraine, defense, and trade] as separate issues, but to Trump, he just sees the same faces presenting him with various annoying questions,” said a senior EU diplomat. “We’re essentially one social media post or press conference remark away from calamity on three existential issues for Europe.”
Former EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell called it a “perfect storm,” warning that Trump could threaten to withhold support for Ukraine unless Europe offers trade concessions, or condition his NATO commitment on higher European defense spending.
A Series of High-Stakes Summits
The pressure is expected to escalate over three consecutive meetings in June:
- G7 Summit (Canada): European leaders will press Trump to reaffirm U.S. support for Ukraine and sanctions on Russia. Many fear he may instead push for a quick peace deal that could leave Ukraine vulnerable.
- NATO Summit (The Hague): European countries hope recent increases in defense budgets will be enough to secure continued American troop deployments and deter Trump from scaling back U.S. military presence on the continent.
- EU Summit (Brussels): The bloc faces a looming trade standoff, with less than two weeks to strike a deal and avoid 50% tariffs that could severely impact the European economy.
Senior EU officials acknowledge that negotiating under such pressure offers few good options. “The choice is between a bad outcome and a very bad outcome,” said one official. Among the worst-case scenarios discussed: a full suspension of U.S. military support to Ukraine, intelligence blackouts, and the severing of supply chains for U.S.-made weapons.
Strained Transatlantic Ties
Trump’s shifting positions have made it harder for the 27 EU member states to coordinate a unified response. While some governments advocate for “strategic autonomy” and reducing dependence on the U.S., others emphasize the importance of preserving the transatlantic alliance.
“We cannot allow ourselves to once again fall for the fallacy that the storm will pass,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. “Things will not go back to how they were before.”
Although French President Emmanuel Macron’s call for greater European independence has gained traction, there remains a lack of consensus on how to transition toward a more self-reliant Europe while managing the current crisis.
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, considered one of Trump’s closest allies in Europe, emphasized the importance of dialogue: “The relationship with the U.S. is fundamental… [It] must be carried on with wisdom and common sense, and with a more political than bureaucratic approach.”
Balancing Diplomacy with Urgency
The challenge for European leaders is clear: how to maintain American cooperation in the short term, while laying the groundwork for long-term resilience. Trump’s pressure campaign is forcing Europe to confront its vulnerabilities—and question whether it can still count on its most powerful ally.
Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer of the German Marshall Fund observed that European capitals are now approaching U.S. relations with greater realism: “The offer, the proposition, will have to come from Brussels—and to that extent, they are still not prepared.”
As one senior EU official summed it up: “Are we in trouble? Yes. We’re in trouble.”
