In the coming days, over 100 global leaders will convene in Baku, Azerbaijan, and upon arrival, they’re likely to notice the distinct presence of oil in the air—a reminder of the country’s reliance on fossil fuels. At night, flames from refineries illuminate the skyline, and the cityscape is dotted with small “nodding donkey” oil pumps. With oil comprising 90% of Azerbaijan’s exports, the setting underscores the central issue leaders must confront at COP29: determining whether the future will prioritize fossil fuel profits or a sustainable path forward.
As the world’s largest economy, the United States is at a pivotal juncture. While Biden’s administration promoted clean energy, the recent U.S. election signals a potential shift back toward Trump-era “drill, baby, drill” policies, sparking discussions among the summit’s thousands of attendees. Despite a greater issuance of oil and gas licenses during Biden’s term compared to Trump’s, climate leaders remain determined to advance global decarbonization goals and uphold the Paris Agreement’s climate objectives.
COP29 builds on years of climate negotiations that, while raising global awareness, have yet to stop rising emissions. Today, greenhouse gases and extreme weather events—including record Atlantic hurricanes, severe floods in Spain, and widespread drought in Africa—highlight the urgency for stronger action. Although global temperature projections have lowered from an anticipated 6°C increase to around 3°C, the consequences at this level would still be severe, underscoring the importance of limiting warming to 1.5°C and reaching net-zero emissions in the coming decades.
Global climate advocates stress that the ongoing crisis will only intensify without collective, decisive action. Kaveh Guilanpour from the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions notes that continued carbon dependence poses risks to economic stability worldwide, while the path to a safer future lies in steering investments toward clean energy. Yet, the task requires substantial funding—approximately $3.5 trillion annually through 2050 for energy transformation, according to the Energy Transitions Commission.
With an eye toward financing, leaders hope to address barriers to securing adequate climate funds for both developed and developing nations. While much of the funding could potentially come from redirecting current investments, poor countries often face exorbitant costs for renewable infrastructure due to higher borrowing rates. For example, despite Africa’s immense solar and wind potential, more solar panels exist in Belgium than across the entire continent. Activists like Tinaye Mabara from Botswana call for major reforms in climate finance to ensure that adaptation efforts receive crucial funding.
The Paris Agreement’s framework for “climate finance” is due for an upgrade at COP29. Previously, wealthy nations pledged $100 billion annually to aid the developing world, but delays in delivering on this promise eroded trust. Now, calls for $2.4 trillion per year for developing countries’ emissions reductions and climate resilience reflect the scale of need, with discussions focusing on mobilizing existing funds and reforming the World Bank to lend more efficiently toward climate goals.
Amid these negotiations, some developed countries propose broadening the pool of climate financiers to include wealthier emerging economies and oil-rich states. With calls to include China, South Korea, and oil states like Saudi Arabia among contributors, the summit might forge an expanded donor base. However, China insists its existing international loans already qualify as climate finance, and the resistance of some petrostates remains a significant challenge.
Innovative financing solutions, such as taxes on high-carbon activities or global levies on shipping, also hold potential, though support for these ideas varies. While Biden’s administration opposed some proposals, Trump’s policies could pose an even greater obstacle to consensus on global climate funding.
Ultimately, COP29’s success hinges on nations’ willingness to step up with robust climate commitments. With upcoming national targets due by COP30, countries like the U.K. and Brazil aim to push for updated, ambitious plans aligned with the 1.5°C target, while scientific warnings emphasize the consequences of a 2°C increase.
