Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, known as the “moderate” face of Europe’s radical right, has cultivated pragmatic relations with Brussels. Leading the charge for June elections, she has fostered a nuanced approach toward the European Union.
The rise of Meloni’s post-fascist, eurosceptic Brothers of Italy in 2022 caused upheaval in the European Union. This sparked concerns about a rightward shift within one of the bloc’s founding members, as well as NATO.
However, Meloni’s vocal support for Ukraine has garnered appreciation from both Washington and Brussels. Particularly noteworthy was her role in convincing Hungary’s Viktor Orban, a longstanding ally with pro-Moscow leanings, to withdraw his veto on EU aid to Kyiv.
Meloni’s collaboration with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on migration highlights her focus on this issue, a key priority for the far-right leader.
Lorenzo Castellani, a political analyst at Rome’s LUISS University, pointed out that Meloni is positioning herself as a moderate conservative and mediator within the radical right at the European level.
Domestically, Meloni has pursued a nationalist populist agenda, emphasizing traditional family values, law and order, and migration policies. This includes cracking down on rescue ships in the central Mediterranean.
While these actions have sparked criticism from the Italian left, particularly regarding attempts to influence the RAI public broadcaster, they have not yet raised significant alarm in Brussels, unlike judicial reforms in Hungary and Poland.
Fiscal policy, on the other hand, has remained relatively cautious due to the limitations imposed by being a member of the EU’s single currency.
Castellani commented, “She aims to embody, in many ways, the tolerable extreme within the broader European political establishment. She’s essentially the final frontier before crossing the border.”
Meloni leads the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group in the European Parliament, which consists of Spain’s Vox, Poland’s populist Law and Justice (PiS), and France’s Reconquete!.
With its pro-Ukraine and pro-NATO position, this group is perceived as more trustworthy by the Brussels establishment compared to the eurosceptic Identity and Democracy group (ID).
The Identity and Democracy group (ID) comprises Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) in France, Germany’s anti-immigrant AfD, and Matteo Salvini’s far-right League, who is also a coalition ally of Meloni.
According to Rosa Balfour, director of the Carnegie Europe think tank, both Rome and Brussels have profited from a practical collaborative bond.
“She noted, “The Commission’s approach has been to embrace Meloni and isolate Orban,” who does not belong to either faction.
“This strategy has proven highly beneficial for Italy, as Meloni has succeeded in securing concessions.”
This has primarily involved EU backing for the Prime Minister’s initiatives to deter the tens of thousands of migrants arriving on Italy’s shores annually via boats from North Africa.
Last year, von der Leyen accompanied Meloni to the island of Lampedusa following a spike in arrivals. Additionally, the two women participated in EU delegations to Egypt and Tunisia in recent months to negotiate new agreements on energy and migration.
Analysts note that the transition to a more stringent EU stance on migration was already in progress before Meloni’s involvement. However, she has not refrained from asserting credit for these developments.
“During her campaign launch last month, she stated, “We aim for Italy to play a pivotal role in reforming what isn’t functioning in Europe.”
Despite an EU regulation prohibiting government ministers from assuming parliamentary positions, she is running in the election and encourages the European right to emulate her approach.
“We aspire to replicate in Europe what we achieved in Italy on September 25, 2022,” she emphasized.
However, Castellani dismisses this as a “bluff.”
“The true strategy she’s pursuing is to position herself within the European alliance framework,” he remarked, particularly fostering connections between the ECR and Von der Leyen’s conservative European People’s Party (EPP).
The fractures within the European right are mirrored within Meloni’s coalition, particularly evident in the contrasting views between her and Salvini. While they align on domestic agendas, their perspectives diverge on foreign policy matters.
Salvini’s League has maintained strong ties with Moscow historically, often criticizing Brussels at any given opportunity.
However, Salvini’s influence has waned. While the League secured the top spot in Italy during the 2019 European elections with 34 percent, recent polls indicate a decline, hovering around eight percent, compared to Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, which now garners over 27 percent.
Surveys indicate that voters appreciate Meloni’s foreign policy stance, although they are less enthusiastic about her approach to migration. Lorenzo Pregliasco, founder of the polling company YouTrend, emphasizes the significance of personality in this context.
He notes that Meloni is perceived as “more authentic” than other Italian leaders, being a proficient communicator and a genuine figure unafraid to speak her mind.
He highlights that her victory in 2022 was fueled by her portrayal as a fresh and distinct figure, notably being the sole party leader who refrained from joining Mario Draghi’s technocratic administration.
Given the ongoing disunity among the opposition, as observed previously, he anticipates that she could maintain her position throughout the entire five-year term.
However, he cautions that the political landscape may undergo significant changes by then, particularly if Donald Trump secures victory in the November US presidential election.
Balfour suggests that Meloni might need to reconsider her positioning.
“If Trump prevails, then you’ll witness all political leaders vying to lead the right. Orban has already staked out his position,” she notes.
