The European Union is weighing a new system that would place future member states under a temporary “probation” period after accession — allowing Brussels to suspend or even revoke their membership if they backslide on democratic principles, according to EU enlargement commissioner Marta Kos.
The proposal, still in its early stages, reflects growing unease among several EU capitals about expanding the bloc to include countries such as Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkans without strong safeguards against corruption, authoritarianism, and external influence — particularly from Russia.
A New Guardrail Against ‘Trojan Horses’
In an interview with the Financial Times, Kos said the commission was exploring mechanisms such as a “transition period” or “probation” phase to ensure that new members continue adhering to democratic standards after joining.
“I don’t want to go down as the commissioner bringing in the Trojan horses who will be active in five, 10, or 15 years,” she said. “We need this discussion, and we shouldn’t be afraid of it.”
The idea marks a significant shift in the EU’s enlargement policy, which had been largely dormant for more than a decade but was revived following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The war renewed the bloc’s sense of urgency to integrate vulnerable neighboring states and prevent Moscow’s influence from deepening in Eastern Europe.
Balancing Expansion and Caution
While the European Commission supports expanding the EU’s geopolitical reach, some member states have expressed quiet reservations about admitting candidates that might later challenge the bloc’s democratic values — citing Hungary as a cautionary example.
Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has repeatedly obstructed EU decisions on sanctions and military aid to Ukraine while tightening his domestic control over media and the judiciary. Brussels has struggled to curb his government’s illiberal trajectory, even after withholding EU funds over rule-of-law violations.
Learning from that experience, Kos said the commission is developing proposals for stronger rule-of-law safeguards and faster mechanisms to suspend or withdraw membership benefits if a country violates EU principles. “A country could potentially be kicked out of the club in case of repeated breaches,” she noted.
Uneven Progress and Rising Tensions
The European Commission’s 2025 Enlargement Report, published Tuesday, rated Montenegro as the most advanced among current candidate countries. However, Kos acknowledged that despite official rhetoric, many EU governments remain cautious about accepting new members.
“Future accession treaties will need to contain stronger safeguards against backsliding,” the report stated, emphasizing the need for candidates to make reforms “irreversible.”
That stance is likely to spark tensions with Kyiv and Chisinau, who could view tougher entry conditions as discriminatory compared with current EU members — including Hungary and Poland, whose democratic records have faced scrutiny.
Ukraine and Moldova’s Parallel Paths
Both Ukraine and Moldova opened accession talks in 2024, but Hungary’s veto has blocked the start of formal negotiations on key policy areas such as energy, competition, and the rule of law.
To maintain progress, the Commission has advanced technical preparations for accession chapters without Orbán’s approval — effectively bypassing the political blockade.
Kos suggested that bundling Ukraine and Moldova together — as has been the case until now — could be “artificial,” hinting that the two countries’ accession paths might be decoupled in the future.
“You don’t need Orbán to do the reforms for your transformation process,” she said. “The key is to keep moving forward with reforms — and both countries still have a lot to do.”
No ‘Two-Tier Europe’
Kos rejected accusations that the proposed model would create a two-tier EU, arguing that new members would only face restrictions if they failed to meet agreed-upon standards. She said the goal was not to punish entrants but to protect the integrity of the Union.
Brussels also plans to gradually integrate candidate countries into EU programmes before full membership — for instance, through the bloc’s upcoming “Democracy Shield” initiative, designed to combat democratic erosion within the Union.
A Race Against Russian Influence
Kos underscored that enlargement is both a political and security imperative. “We have been able to stop Russia at the front door,” she said, pointing to Ukraine’s resistance, pro-EU victories in Moldova, and strong popular support for EU membership across the Balkans.
“But if we lose momentum,” she warned, “the biggest fear I have is that the Russians will come in at the back door.”
The European Commission is expected to formalize elements of the “probation” framework in its next round of enlargement policy proposals later this year.
