The eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk is facing a critical threat as Russian forces push deeper into the frontline, exposing Ukraine’s growing manpower shortage and raising fears of another costly urban loss similar to Bakhmut or Avdiivka.
Despite official reassurances from Kyiv that the situation is “under control,” local fighters and military observers warn that Ukrainian defences in Pokrovsk and the nearby town of Myrnohrad are stretched thin, with too few troops to hold the line against Russia’s relentless assaults.
A Frontline Under Strain
Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad — once home to nearly 100,000 people — have long served as logistical and transportation hubs for Ukraine’s military operations in Donetsk region. But as Russian troops intensify their offensive, Ukrainian forces are struggling to maintain control amid a shortage of personnel and ammunition.
Former deputy defence minister Vitaliy Deynega, founder of the “Come Back Alive” foundation, warned that Ukraine risks repeating past mistakes by holding ground for too long. “The situation is more than complicated and less than controlled,” he wrote on social media, urging a tactical withdrawal “while it is still possible.”
Manpower Shortages and Desertions
Ukraine’s 1,000-kilometre frontline is increasingly undermanned. Experts estimate that each kilometre is guarded by just four to seven infantry soldiers, far below what is needed for sustained defence. According to Maria Berlinska, a volunteer working closely with the army, the situation reflects a severe recruitment crisis.
Nearly 20,000 cases of desertion or absence without leave were recorded in October — the highest number this year. Some soldiers reportedly abandon units with poor leadership to join better ones, while others flee before even reaching the front.
“The result is that the land forces are not expanding but actually shrinking,” said Konrad Muzyka, director of Rochan Consulting in Poland. “Some areas are now effectively guarded only by drones.”
Russian Gains and Tactical Pressure
After months of slow progress, Russian units have breached Pokrovsk’s outskirts and captured positions inside the city, reportedly hiding in the basements of high-rise buildings. Ukrainian officials estimate that between 200 and 314 Russian soldiers have entered the urban area.
Kyiv’s troops, exhausted and short of reinforcements, have faced continuous drone and artillery strikes that have cut off key supply routes. The Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState reported that Myrnohrad, just south of Pokrovsk, is now “under threat of operational encirclement.”
Commanders Forced to Choose
Ukraine’s shortage of personnel has forced commanders into impossible choices. Elite “firefighter” units — quick-response groups used to repel enemy breakthroughs — were withdrawn in August to defend northern sectors, leaving Pokrovsk more vulnerable.
Military analyst Rob Lee from the Foreign Policy Research Institute said, “Once those counter-infiltration groups were redeployed, Pokrovsk lost its ability to contain Russian advances.”
Special forces from Ukraine’s army, intelligence, and security service were later sent to stabilize the situation, but analysts believe the deployment may have come too late.
Recruiting Challenges and Temporary Fixes
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has acknowledged the recruitment problem but stopped short of ordering wider conscription. Instead, Kyiv has launched one-year contracts for men aged 18 to 24 — a demographic exempt from mandatory service — and offered amnesty to deserters who rejoin the fight.
Zelenskyy also announced short-term service contracts for soldiers currently engaged in indefinite mobilization, ranging from one to five years, in hopes of boosting morale. However, Defence Minister Denys Shmyhal said these contracts will not take effect until early next year, leaving immediate manpower shortages unresolved.
Strategic Risks Ahead
Pokrovsk’s potential fall would give Russia a strategic foothold for deeper advances into Donetsk. Analysts warn that Kyiv’s determination to hold the city at all costs could backfire, leading to heavy losses and damaging public confidence.
“If not managed correctly, the battle for Pokrovsk could affect how Ukrainians view their military,” said Muzyka. “If people see another Bakhmut or Avdiivka, many will lose the will to enlist.”
For now, Pokrovsk stands as a symbol of Ukraine’s military endurance under severe strain — a frontline city caught between dwindling manpower, rising pressure, and the grim arithmetic of war.
