British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are close to finalizing a bilateral migrant returns agreement, expected to be announced at the conclusion of Macron’s state visit to the UK on Thursday.
According to senior UK officials, negotiations over the text and terms of the deal are in their final phase, with intensive discussions continuing late into Wednesday night. The accord aims to establish a reciprocal returns mechanism that could later evolve into a broader European framework.
Pilot Returns Scheme: “One In, One Out”
At the heart of the deal is a pilot scheme allowing for up to 50 migrants per week to be transferred from the UK to France. In exchange, France would return an equivalent number of migrants with a legitimate claim to be in Britain. The proposed model reflects a “one in, one out” structure, first reported by the Financial Times in March.
Although this would represent a small fraction — roughly one in 17 — of the migrants currently crossing the English Channel into the UK on small boats, supporters of the agreement hope it will act as a deterrent to human traffickers and reduce the incentive for irregular migration.
France, which has historically favored EU-wide coordination on migration, has shown willingness to test the scheme, viewing it as a practical step toward managing migration more effectively while upholding humanitarian principles.
Opposition from Southern EU States
Despite support from Paris and London, the proposal has encountered resistance from several EU member states. Italy, Spain, Greece, Malta, and Cyprus recently expressed concerns to the European Commission, warning that a bilateral Franco-British agreement could place additional migration pressures on countries where migrants initially arrive.
Emanuele Loperfido, an MP from Italy’s ruling Brothers of Italy party, voiced those concerns publicly, suggesting the scheme could redirect migration flows toward southern Europe.
Political and Public Backdrop
Macron and Starmer are set to hold bilateral talks Thursday morning, followed by a joint press conference where details of the deal are expected to be revealed. In a speech on Wednesday, President Macron emphasized the need to address irregular migration with “humanity, solidarity, and fairness,” while also highlighting the importance of tackling migration pull factors in the UK — a point long emphasized by French officials.
So far this year, more than 21,000 people have crossed the English Channel in small boats, setting a record for the first half of the year. The surge has kept immigration high on the UK’s political agenda.
Questions Over Impact
Experts are cautious about the potential effectiveness of the pilot agreement. Madeleine Sumption, Director of Oxford University’s Migration Observatory, noted that the success of the policy will depend on how widely the returns are implemented and perceived. “If it was a majority of people being sent back to France, it would be more likely that people would know about it and would believe that this is something that could happen to them,” she said.
She also stressed that many factors influencing migration — such as family ties in the UK and language — are not easily changed by policy alone.
Controversy and Backlash
Tensions over migration have been further inflamed by a disturbing incident in Northern Ireland. In the town of Moygashel, a bonfire effigy depicting a migrant boat was erected as part of the annual Unionist bonfire season. The structure included figures in life jackets and signs reading “Stop the boats” and “Veterans before refugees.”
The effigy drew widespread condemnation from across the political spectrum. Patrick Corrigan, Amnesty International’s Northern Ireland director, described it as “a vile, dehumanising act that fuels hatred and racism.”
The proposed returns deal between the UK and France represents a significant diplomatic step and a potential shift in how European countries manage migration in the absence of a unified EU policy. While the agreement may provide short-term deterrence and cooperation, it faces legal, logistical, and political hurdles — both domestically and across the continent.
As Starmer and Macron prepare to present the agreement publicly, its broader impact — both as a model and as a test of political will — remains to be seen.
