Turkey’s political landscape experienced a seismic shift as the main opposition party dealt an unexpected blow to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s rule in Sunday’s local elections. The sweeping victory secured by Turkey’s opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) saw them retain control of major cities, including Ankara and Istanbul, where Ekrem Imamoğlu secured a second term as mayor.
It seems, according to experts, Erdoğan and his party were expecting a continuation of victories—which started with the presidential elections last year. But this wasn’t the cast on Sunday. Erdoğan lost and the AKP was dealt a massive—and unexpected—blow. It’s a textbook shock.
Addressing jubilant supporters, Imamoğlu declared, “Starting from tomorrow, Turkey will be a different Turkey. You opened the door to the rise of democracy, equality, and freedom… You ignited hope at the ballot box.” The favorable turnout favored the opposition, as the CHP secured control of western Turkey and made gains in traditionally conservative regions.
The outcome of these elections was seen as a symbolic rebuke of Erdoğan, who had rallied his supporters in an effort to reclaim Istanbul, holding rallies and attending prayers at the symbolic Hagia Sophia mosque in the city. Despite his efforts, the CHP’s victory underscored a shift in public sentiment, prompting tears from the head of the CHP, Özgür Özel, who proclaimed, “These election results show that voters decided to establish a new politics in Turkey.”
In a subdued address to supporters, Erdoğan emphasized the importance of democracy, stating, “Regardless of the results, the winner of this election is primarily democracy.” However, he acknowledged the disappointment of not achieving the desired outcome and pledged to rebuild trust.
Imamoğlu’s victory in Istanbul, by a significant margin, solidified his position as a prominent figure in Turkish politics. His initial victory in 2019, followed by a resounding win in the rerun demanded by Erdoğan, catapulted him from a minor municipal official to a formidable challenger to Erdoğan’s rule. With speculation mounting about a potential presidential run, Imamoğlu’s second term is poised to elevate him further.
Despite being outspent by the AKP, Imamoğlu’s campaign resonated with voters disillusioned by Turkey’s struggling economy. Many viewed the election as an opportunity to express dissatisfaction with Erdoğan’s policies, particularly regarding the economy. Selim Sazak of Sanda Global consultancy noted, “The voters are telling the government that the economy is really hurting them.”
Erdoğan’s attempts to position himself as the face of the campaign to retake Istanbul backfired, as residents expressed frustration over economic hardships linked to his policies. The appointment of a new finance minister and central bank governor, coupled with austerity measures, failed to assuage public concerns as inflation continued to rise.
In the aftermath of these elections, Turkey finds itself at a crossroads, with the opposition emboldened by their success and Erdoğan facing mounting challenges to his grip on power. As the dust settles, all eyes are on the future trajectory of Turkish politics and the implications of this seismic shift in local elections. Yet, Erdoğan and his AKP will have to grapple with the shock that they suffered on Sunday. And the way they will deal with it will play a huge role in determining the party’s political behavior and Turkey’s overall political trajectory.
