A new report by a think tank affiliated with Reform UK has warned that Britain risks sliding into a debt crisis reminiscent of the 1970s, urging the government to take drastic measures to prevent market confidence from collapsing. The findings, prepared by the Centre for a Better Britain (CFABB), have drawn attention both for their fiscal proposals and for their alignment with Reform UK’s political agenda.
Former Tory Minister and Bank Executive Among Contributors
The report — the first since the CFABB’s launch in September — includes contributions from Sir John Redwood, a former Conservative cabinet minister, and Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, alongside two unnamed bond traders.
Redwood, a long-time advocate of fiscal restraint, warned in his foreword that Britain was “borrowing too much,” a trend that could trigger “emergency measures on spending and taxation that no government should wish to experience.”
He compared the current situation to the 1976 sterling crisis, which forced Prime Minister James Callaghan’s Labour government to seek an IMF bailout, but suggested today’s danger could stem from a “strike of the bond lenders” within domestic markets, rather than from external creditors.
Key Policy Recommendations
The CFABB report argues that the Bank of England should stop paying interest on certain reserves held by commercial banks — a long-standing Reform UK proposal — estimating potential savings of £48 billion by 2029.
It also calls for the suspension of active gilt sales under the Bank’s quantitative tightening program, which it claims would ease Treasury costs and prevent further market destabilisation.
Jonathan Brown, CFABB’s chief executive and a former Reform UK chief operating officer, said the country needs “a politically realistic and sensible plan” to avert default.
“We were speaking to people in the City and they were all saying there was a serious risk of default,” Brown said.
The report goes further by recommending immediate public spending cuts, including major changes to migration and welfare policy. It advocates for Britain to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), arguing this would enable mass deportations of illegal migrants and save up to £4 billion annually.
According to CFABB’s estimates, leaving the ECHR could allow for up to 700,000 deportations, a claim critics are likely to challenge as politically charged and legally complex.
Divisions Among Contributors
While Dowding confirmed his participation, he distanced himself from Reform UK’s more politically sensitive positions, saying he viewed the project as an economic discussion rather than an ideological one.
“As a long-time gilt investor, I have been seeing the UK limping along and felt like I had been on the sidelines,” he said.
“I am not identifying with politically inflammatory arguments such as leaving the ECHR. My participation was based on the assumption that this is a politically neutral think tank.”
Despite such reassurances, the CFABB’s proximity to Reform UK has raised questions about its independence. Insiders confirmed that Reform’s deputy leader Richard Tice has asked the think tank to form four working groups aimed at overhauling City of London regulation.
Reform UK’s Outreach to the Financial Sector
The report’s release coincides with Reform UK’s efforts to build credibility in the financial community. Party leaders, including Richard Tice and Nigel Farage, have recently held meetings with executives from major banks such as Lloyds, NatWest, and Nationwide, according to people familiar with the discussions.
A senior Reform figure said the meetings reflected growing acceptance of the party among financial elites:
“It is pretty clear that the City of London takes us seriously.”
Political Context and Influence
The CFABB is positioning itself as Reform UK’s primary policy hub, modeled after US pro-Trump think tanks such as the Center for Renewing America and the America First Policy Institute.
Although it describes itself as independent, its policy recommendations closely mirror Reform UK’s platform, including opposition to net-zero climate policies, stricter migration enforcement, and reduced welfare spending.
Neither Reform UK nor Sir John Redwood have commented publicly on the report.
Broader Implications
The CFABB’s warnings of a potential debt crisis arrive as the UK grapples with rising borrowing costs, sluggish growth, and political uncertainty over fiscal strategy. While some economists view its proposals as alarmist, others see them as part of a growing debate about the sustainability of Britain’s public finances.
If Reform UK continues to gain traction in the polls, the think tank’s ideas — once confined to the party’s fringes — may increasingly shape mainstream discussions about the country’s economic future.
