As European leaders gathered in Washington this week to support Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during high-stakes talks with US President Donald Trump, one country was notably absent: Poland. Once among Ukraine’s loudest champions, Warsaw failed to send a delegation. Newly inaugurated rightwing President Karol Nawrocki chose instead to focus on his own upcoming bilateral meeting with Trump in September.
Perhaps more striking was the absence of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who had been expected to play a central role in strengthening Europe’s pro-Ukraine voice. Just two years ago, Tusk’s return to power was hailed as a historic victory against populism, seen by many as the potential start of a liberal democratic revival across Europe. Yet today, his position is faltering — and Poland’s international influence is rapidly eroding.
From Political Hope to Disillusionment
Tusk’s 2023 electoral victory over the populist-nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party was achieved against significant odds, fueled by widespread anger among younger voters and unprecedented civic mobilisation. His campaign focused heavily on restoring the rule of law and repairing democratic institutions undermined during PiS’s eight-year rule.
But reversing those systemic changes has proved nearly impossible. PiS reshaped Poland’s institutions, consolidating power under a strong executive, politicising the courts, weakening parliament, and turning the state broadcaster into a partisan voice. Tusk’s promise to “turn back the clock” has collided with political realities — leaving many of his supporters disillusioned.
Governance Challenges and Waning Support
Tusk’s government, preoccupied with confronting PiS, has struggled to deliver on key reforms. Promised initiatives on same-sex partnerships, abortion rights, housing reform, and reducing political interference in state-owned companies have stalled. Instead, the government has been consumed by coalition disputes, minor scandals, and bureaucratic inefficiency.
This failure to meet expectations has weakened Tusk’s standing. The young voters who propelled him to power are now disenchanted. Civil society groups feel neglected, while the shrinking middle class — once Tusk’s reliable base — is weighed down by inflation, housing costs, and stagnant social mobility.
His occasional overtures to the far right have only further alienated his supporters, echoing the struggles of other centrist leaders in Europe, such as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Domestic Paralysis, International Consequences
Poland now faces a prolonged political standoff between President Nawrocki’s nationalist camp and Tusk’s pro-European coalition. With parliamentary elections not due for another two years, this deadlock threatens to paralyse governance and policy-making.
Internationally, Poland’s credibility as a leading voice on Ukraine is fading. Disagreements between Nawrocki and Tusk over Poland’s participation in key international calls and meetings have already weakened its presence on the global stage. Once hailed as Europe’s rising power and a strong advocate for Kyiv, Poland risks slipping into irrelevance at a crucial moment for Ukraine and the broader region.
Implications for Ukraine and Europe
Poland’s weakening position comes at a time when Ukraine needs unified European support to counter both Russian aggression and wavering signals from Washington. The decline of one of Kyiv’s strongest backers could undermine efforts to maintain a firm, collective European stance on Russia.
As Poland grapples with political infighting, its diminished influence could have long-term consequences for the balance of power in Europe — and for Ukraine’s future in the war against Russia.
