Ireland appears poised to elect Catherine Connolly, a 68-year-old independent lawmaker and outspoken critic of Western foreign policy, as the country’s next president — a result that would mark a historic shift in Irish politics and deal a symbolic blow to the long-dominant centrist parties Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
According to the latest Irish Independent/Ireland Thinks poll, Connolly holds a commanding 40% of voter support, compared with 25% for her closest rival, Heather Humphreys, the Fine Gael candidate and former cabinet minister. About 28% of voters remain undecided or plan to abstain, but Connolly’s momentum, particularly among younger voters, suggests that Ireland is on the verge of choosing its most left-leaning president in decades.
A Vocal Defender of Neutrality
Connolly, a former barrister and clinical psychologist, has built her campaign around defending Ireland’s traditional policy of military neutrality. She has been sharply critical of the European Union’s military response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, arguing that the bloc “has lost its moral compass” and likening Germany’s increased defense spending to rearmament in the 1930s.
Her pro-Palestinian stance has also drawn attention. Connolly has accused the US, UK, and France of “moral hypocrisy” over their approach to the Gaza conflict, calling for stronger Irish advocacy for humanitarian principles in international policy.
Her leftist appeal, combined with a viral social media campaign — including a popular video showcasing her football skills — has helped her connect with younger voters disillusioned by Ireland’s political establishment.
A Fragmented Race and Faltering Establishment
The race to replace outgoing president Michael D. Higgins narrowed to Connolly and Humphreys after Fianna Fáil’s candidate, Jim Gavin, abruptly withdrew amid a financial dispute scandal with a former tenant. Gavin’s name remains on the ballot, and polls suggest he could still receive up to 10% of the vote.
Humphreys, 62, has campaigned as a moderate “bridge-builder,” citing her Presbyterian roots and her desire to strengthen ties with Northern Ireland’s Protestant community. However, her campaign has struggled to gain traction, weighed down by Fine Gael’s long incumbency — the party has been in power since 2011 — and widespread frustration over Ireland’s housing crisis.
Even within Fine Gael’s own ranks, 18% of supporters have reportedly shifted their backing to Connolly.
Sinn Féin’s Influence and the Left’s Momentum
Ireland’s largest opposition party, Sinn Féin, opted not to field its own candidate and instead endorsed Connolly, uniting much of the Irish left behind her. The move has been described by party leaders as a “game-changer” that could energize progressive voters ahead of the next general election.
However, political analysts caution against viewing a Connolly victory as a prelude to a left-wing government. “The left have united around her, but this is a second-order election — it doesn’t necessarily translate into a general election,” said Gail McElroy, professor of political science at Trinity College Dublin.
Polls show Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael languishing at 17% and 18%, respectively, while Sinn Féin leads nationally with 27% support — underscoring growing voter fatigue with Ireland’s traditional two-party system.
Controversies and Resilience
Connolly’s campaign has weathered several controversies, including criticism of her 2018 visit to Syria under Bashar al-Assad’s regime, her decision to employ a dissident republican convicted of gun crimes, and her past legal work representing banks during Ireland’s foreclosure crisis.
Despite these attacks, Connolly’s calm demeanor and unflappable style have bolstered her image as an independent-minded candidate unwilling to bow to political pressure.
A Symbolic but Limited Role
While the Irish presidency is largely ceremonial, the role carries moral and symbolic weight. The president can refer laws to the Supreme Court for review and challenge legislation, but cannot initiate or veto laws.
Analysts suggest that Connolly’s younger supporters may later find the limits of presidential power disappointing. “A lot of the youthful vote might be disillusioned by how weak she is inevitably going to be,” said McElroy.
Still, Connolly’s anticipated victory would reflect a growing appetite for change and independence in Irish politics — a symbolic rejection of the political establishment that has guided the country for the past century.
