Recent events have highlighted the extent to which Europe’s quest for geopolitical and economic influence continues to fall short of its ambitions. From dependence on foreign technology to growing pressure from global powers, the European Union is increasingly confronted with the limits of its strategic autonomy.
Chinese Tech Exposure Sparks Security Concerns
A recent revelation in Denmark and Norway caused alarm across the continent: Chinese-made Yutong electric buses operating in both countries could be remotely accessed and disabled via software controlled by the Chinese state. The discovery triggered urgent assessments across Europe to determine the scale of vulnerability to Chinese technological interference.
This dependence stands in stark contrast to the “open strategic autonomy” promised by European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen in 2021 — a vision of Europe as a geopolitical actor capable of protecting its interests independently.
Challenges from the US and China Undermine EU Goals
Europe is not only contending with China but also facing intensified pressure from the United States. The EU is reportedly considering weakening its landmark AI Act following pushback from major US tech companies. Meanwhile, earlier this year, the bloc conceded to tariff reductions under the so-called “Turnberry deal” after pressure from Donald Trump, raising concerns that Europe is losing its role as a global standard-setter.
Despite fears of a global economic fracture into rival geopolitical blocs, much of the world continues to balance trade with both Washington and Beijing. Yet Europe remains caught between them, often responding rather than shaping global economic rules.
The EU as a Partial Shield — but Not Yet a Power
Membership in the EU continues to offer smaller states a degree of protection. Countries such as Iceland and Switzerland, historically outside the union, have moved closer to the bloc in response to geopolitical pressures — Switzerland especially after being affected by Trump-era tariffs.
Still, Europe’s ambition extends beyond being a regional safe haven. It aims to become a global economic heavyweight capable of projecting influence, but the gap between ambition and reality remains significant.
Limited Influence on Critical Raw Materials
The EU’s influence is especially weak in areas where technological supply chains matter more than consumer market access. Brussels is now revising its list of critical raw materials for the fifth time but still lacks the leverage needed to secure stable supplies.
China has imposed restrictions on rare earth exports, directly affecting European industry. The Netherlands’ takeover of Chinese-owned Nexperia — prompted largely by US security pressure — led to China blocking semiconductor exports in retaliation. Resolution of the issue reportedly came only after an unexpected diplomatic thaw between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, underscoring the EU’s lack of direct leverage.
Trade Agreements: Progress, With Compromises
To its credit, Brussels continues to push forward with traditional trade agreements. The long-delayed EU–Mercosur deal is finally moving ahead after 25 years, though critics argue the EU weakened its environmental standards to secure the pact.
The agreement once symbolised a “cars for beef” exchange. Today, however, Brazil’s priority has shifted to electric vehicles — a sector where China dominates. Chinese EV makers are rapidly gaining market share in Brazil and are investing heavily in local production encouraged by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Europe’s Slow Adaptation Mirrors the Struggles of Its Car Industry
The challenges facing Europe’s automotive sector encapsulate the EU’s broader geopolitical inertia. European manufacturers excel at refining established systems but struggle to pivot quickly when global conditions change. National priorities often obstruct collective action, as seen in Germany’s reluctance to cede industry influence to EU-level policy.
A Gap Between Ambition and Reality
While criticism of EU institutions is frequent — and sometimes unfair — Europe faces structural hurdles: fragmented fiscal authority, uneven military capability, and divergent national interests. The bloc is making more geopolitical effort than the US in some areas, particularly in supporting Ukraine and resisting isolationist trade policies. But substantial barriers remain.
Despite von der Leyen’s pledge to achieve strategic independence, the EU has made limited progress. Signing modern trade agreements is valuable, but insufficient to elevate the bloc into a true global geopolitical power.
Europe’s ambition to be a “rule-maker” rather than a “rule-taker” remains unfulfilled — and its vulnerabilities in technology, raw materials, and strategic coordination highlight just how far it still has to go.
