Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has urged the Trump administration not to misinterpret President Alexander Lukashenko’s recent diplomatic gestures, warning that the authoritarian Belarusian leader is attempting to “fool” Washington into granting legitimacy and easing sanctions.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Tsikhanouskaya said she supported US efforts to secure the release of political prisoners on humanitarian grounds, but insisted it was “absolutely wrong” to assume Lukashenko could be persuaded to distance himself from Moscow.
“Lukashenko Will Never Turn His Back on Putin”
Tsikhanouskaya stressed that despite presenting himself as a potential mediator between Russia and the US over the war in Ukraine, Lukashenko remains firmly aligned with the Kremlin.
“Lukashenko is the most pro-Russian person in Belarus,” she said. “It’s impossible to split them.”
Belarus has been one of Russia’s closest partners throughout the war in Ukraine, offering its territory as a staging ground for the invasion, hosting Russian nuclear weapons, and allowing drone flights across NATO borders. Lithuania has even described mass balloon incursions carrying contraband from Belarus as “hybrid attacks.”
Washington’s Outreach Raises Concerns
Despite Lukashenko’s repression and his support for Moscow’s war, President Donald Trump has taken an unusually warm approach toward Minsk. Last week, he described the Belarusian leader as “highly respected.”
In September, the US lifted some sanctions on Belarusian airline Belavia, after Lukashenko released 52 political prisoners—among them Sergei Tsikhanouski, Tsikhanouskaya’s husband and a former opposition leader.
John Coale, Trump’s envoy, has said Washington is “ready to do everything” to normalise ties and is currently negotiating further releases in exchange for sanctions relief.
Tsikhanouskaya acknowledged being in close contact with US officials and welcomed transparency, but cautioned that Lukashenko was portraying this engagement domestically as proof of international legitimacy.
Political Prisoners: “A Revolving Door”
Human rights groups say more than 1,200 political prisoners remain jailed in Belarus, and arrests continue. Tsikhanouskaya warned that while some detainees are freed, new ones are immediately taken into custody.
“For every one released, twice as many are detained,” she said. “It’s an endless revolving door.”
She urged the US and European countries not to offer excessive concessions for symbolic releases. European governments, she said, should “hold their cards for a bigger game” focused on securing lasting democratic change in Belarus.
Opposition Strategy: Preparing for a Power Shift
From exile in Lithuania—where authorities are considering reducing her security protection—Tsikhanouskaya said her movement remains relevant and active despite five years abroad. She continues to receive death threats from Belarusian security services.
Her current strategy, she explained, is to prepare for a brief “moment of turbulence” when Lukashenko’s 71-year-old rule becomes vulnerable—particularly if Russia is too weakened by the war in Ukraine to intervene decisively.
The opposition is also attempting to sow dissent within the Belarusian elite and fuel Lukashenko’s fear of a possible military coup, which she suggested could help destabilise his long-standing grip on power.
