Four of the world’s leading commodity traders — Trafigura, Mercuria, Glencore, and IXM — are poised to collectively earn more than $300 million in profits by capitalizing on a lucrative arbitrage opportunity in the U.S. copper market, triggered by President Donald Trump’s recent tariff announcement.
Trump’s move to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports from August 1 — double what was previously expected — caused U.S. copper prices to spike 13% within minutes. This surge created a significant price gap with global benchmarks like the London Metal Exchange (LME), allowing traders to buy copper cheaply abroad and sell it at a premium in the U.S. via the Comex market.
How the Trade Works
- U.S. copper prices are now 28% higher than those on the LME.
- By importing copper at lower international prices and selling at higher U.S. prices, traders are capturing unprecedented margins.
- Based on FT estimates and market data, the average profit per tonne is around $520, after factoring in shipping and related costs.
Stockpiling and Shipment Volumes
Since the November election, traders have shipped approximately 600,000 tonnes of “excess” copper to the U.S., above typical demand levels:
- Trafigura: ~200,000 tonnes
- Mercuria: ~200,000 tonnes (by end of the month)
- Glencore: Between 100,000–200,000 tonnes
- IXM: Over 50,000 tonnes
These figures represent a significant portion of global copper trade and have, according to traders, “sucked dry” the supply in other international markets.
Market Implications
This copper stockpile marks another major disruption in global commodities caused by Trump’s tariff policies — earlier waves affected gold and aluminum. While analysts debate the long-term consequences for U.S. manufacturers, the short-term winners are clearly the trading houses, which acted early on the expectation that Trump’s tariff threats would materialize.
Tom Price of Panmure Liberum noted:
“Months ago, copper traders worldwide took a punt that Trump’s tariff pitch was real, not bluster. They were right — and their collective payoff has been spectacular.”
Mercuria’s head of metals, Kostas Bintas, had earlier described the situation as:
“One of the most exceptional periods in history for copper.”
None of the four trading firms have publicly commented on the matter.
Key Takeaway: The combination of geopolitical uncertainty and strategic market moves has allowed a handful of commodity traders to extract hundreds of millions in profit — with potential long-term effects still unfolding across global supply chains and industrial production.
