Shares in Dutch tech giant ASML fell by nearly 7% in morning trading on Wednesday after the company issued a cautionary statement regarding its growth outlook, despite posting strong second-quarter earnings.
ASML, a global leader in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, cited growing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty — including the potential impact of new U.S. tariffs — as a major risk to its previously forecasted 2026 growth.
“The level of uncertainty is increasing, mostly due to macroeconomic and geopolitical considerations. And that includes, of course, tariffs,” said ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet. “While we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage.”
Strong Q2 Results Amid Uncertainty
Despite the warning, ASML exceeded analysts’ expectations in its Q2 financials:
- Sales rose 23% to €7.7 billion.
- Net bookings reached €5.5 billion.
- Net income stood at €2.3 billion.
However, the company’s third-quarter sales projection of €7.4 to €7.9 billion fell short of market forecasts, and gross margins were estimated between 50% and 52%. ASML maintained a forecast of 15% revenue growth for the full year.
The firm’s advanced lithography systems are vital to the global semiconductor supply chain, especially in the AI boom fueling demand for high-performance chips. Chipmaker Nvidia, a key ASML customer, recently became the world’s first \$4 trillion company, driven by surging demand for AI hardware.
Tariff Risks and China Restrictions
While semiconductors themselves currently remain exempt from former U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest proposed tariffs, it remains unclear whether chipmaking equipment like that produced by ASML will be spared.
ASML also faces export restrictions imposed by the Dutch government, which bar the shipment of certain advanced technologies to China. These measures remain in place, and there has been no indication that they will be relaxed.
Favorable shifts in U.S.-China trade policy could provide some relief. Nvidia, for instance, received approval to resume sales of its H20 AI chip in China following the easing of U.S. export controls. ASML stands to benefit from such developments given its tight integration in the global chip ecosystem.
Analyst Perspective
Ben Barringer, global technology analyst at Quilter Cheviot, noted that while tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty play a role, other factors are also impacting ASML’s outlook.
“It is more likely that uncertainty from China, memory capex hesitation, and financial struggles at key clients like Intel and Samsung are contributing to the weaker outlook,” he said.
Samsung recently reported its first profit decline in two years, adding to industry concerns.
Still, Barringer remains optimistic:
“Ultimately, this is a speed bump for what remains a high-quality company. It still has a big backlog, so growth should still pull through.”
