The European Union’s effort to end its dependence on Russian energy is facing serious financial and infrastructure challenges, with auditors warning that investment in renewable energy, alternative suppliers and electricity grids remains far below the level originally considered necessary.
The warning comes as Europe approaches winter with gas-storage levels significantly lower than a year earlier, increasing concerns about the bloc’s ability to withstand supply disruptions, stronger demand or another period of exceptionally high energy prices.
The European Court of Auditors said the EU’s progress under its REPowerEU strategy has depended too heavily on temporary circumstances—including mild winters and reduced energy consumption caused partly by high prices—rather than lasting structural improvements to the continent’s energy system.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU has dramatically reduced its reliance on Russian gas. Moscow supplied about 45% of the bloc’s gas imports before the war, but that share has since fallen to approximately 12%. Europe has also prohibited most seaborne Russian oil deliveries and expanded imports from Norway, the United States, North Africa and the Middle East.
However, the auditors warned that reducing imports is not the same as eliminating vulnerability. Europe still needs major investments in renewable generation, cross-border electricity connections, storage facilities and liquefied natural gas infrastructure to replace Russian energy reliably and affordably.
The original REPowerEU plan estimated that approximately €300 billion in additional investment would be required. Yet only about €54.3 billion has reportedly been committed through the plan’s dedicated financing mechanisms.
This wide gap raises questions over whether the initial cost was significantly underestimated or whether implementation and funding have fallen short of expectations. In either case, auditors said the EU needs clearer planning and stronger monitoring to ensure that its energy-security targets can be achieved.
Electricity grids are a particular concern. Europe is rapidly adding wind and solar power, but aging networks are struggling to accommodate the increase in variable renewable generation. Long delays in grid connections and permitting have also prevented some completed projects from supplying electricity at their full potential.
Without expanded networks, energy storage and stronger cross-border connections, renewable power generated in one region cannot always be delivered efficiently to areas where demand is highest. This can force countries to rely on gas-fired generation during periods of weak wind or limited sunlight.
The timing of the warning is sensitive. Europe is preparing to phase out remaining Russian gas supplies, including liquefied natural gas, while competition for global LNG cargoes remains intense. Supply risks have also increased because of instability in the Middle East and growing energy demand in Asia.
Lower gas inventories could leave European markets more exposed if winter temperatures fall sharply. Countries may be forced to purchase expensive replacement cargoes on the international market, placing renewed pressure on households and energy-intensive industries.
The EU’s reduction in gas consumption has helped maintain supply security since 2022, but some of that decline reflects weaker industrial activity rather than improved efficiency alone. High energy prices have forced several European manufacturers to reduce production or move investment elsewhere, particularly in chemicals, metals, glass and fertilizers.
This means Europe faces a difficult balance. It must end an energy relationship that gave Russia substantial political and financial leverage, while preventing the transition from weakening European industrial competitiveness or increasing the cost of living.
The European Commission said it is accelerating renewable-energy deployment and would respond to the auditors’ recommendations. Brussels maintains that Europe has made substantial progress in diversifying its energy supplies and improving its ability to manage future disruptions.
Nevertheless, the auditors’ findings suggest that the most difficult stage of the transition may still lie ahead. Emergency purchases and mild weather helped Europe navigate the immediate crisis, but permanent energy security will require far larger investments in domestic production, modern grids and long-term alternatives.
The EU has succeeded in sharply reducing its dependence on Russian energy. Whether it can complete that break without creating new vulnerabilities will depend on how quickly political commitments are converted into functioning infrastructure.
