A new study by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) warns that the combined number of military casualties in Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine could approach 2 million by the spring of 2026. The figures, which include those killed, wounded, or missing on both sides, are among the highest estimates yet published for what has become Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II.
According to the CSIS analysis, Russian forces have borne the brunt of the losses, with an estimated around 1.2 million casualties — including up to 325,000 deaths — since the invasion began in February 2022. Ukrainian armed forces are also believed to have suffered heavily, with estimates ranging between 500,000 to 600,000 casualties and up to 140,000 deaths in the same period.
The report’s authors describe these figures as historically significant, noting that no major power since World War II has endured such high military losses in a single conflict. Despite the scale of human loss, CSIS highlights that Russian territorial advances have been extremely limited, with front-line offensives reportedly gaining just 15–70 meters per day in some sectors.
Moscow Rejects the Report
The Kremlin has publicly dismissed the CSIS findings as “unreliable information”, insisting that only the Russian Ministry of Defence is authorized to release official casualty figures. Russia has not provided updated official data on military losses since 2022, when it reported that just under 6,000 soldiers had been killed.
Russian authorities argue that external estimates are politically motivated and not grounded in verified statistics. Independent reporting on losses inside Russia is limited due to restrictions on military information and media censorship.
Uncertainty and Broader Context
Accurate casualty figures for both sides remain difficult to confirm due to limited transparency from official sources and the fog of war. Open-source estimates, such as those compiled by the BBC Russian service and independent outlets like Mediazona, suggest that confirmed Russian fatalities exceed 160,000, though the actual toll may be significantly higher.
Beyond military losses, civilian casualties have also increased sharply. United Nations monitors reported that over 2,500 civilians were killed and more than 12,000 injured in 2025, representing a significant rise from the previous year.
A Conflict Nearing Four Years
As the war approaches its fourth anniversary on 24 February 2026, diplomatic efforts to negotiate a ceasefire have yet to yield a breakthrough. While minor progress has been reported in recent peace talks involving Ukraine, Russia and international mediators, core issues such as territorial control and security guarantees remain unresolved.
The CSIS report’s stark casualty estimates underscore the protracted and bloody nature of the conflict, the immense human cost for both nations’ armed forces, and the continued difficulty in achieving a negotiated end to the fighting.
