European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa will travel to Beijing for the 25th EU–China Summit, commemorating the 50th anniversary of diplomatic ties between the European Union and China. While the occasion holds symbolic value, expectations for substantial outcomes remain low, with both sides entering the talks amid significant political and economic strain.
A Reduced Format Reflecting Caution
Originally planned as a two-day summit in Brussels, the event has been scaled back to a single-day meeting in Beijing. This shift is widely seen as a reflection of China’s cautious and measured approach to its relationship with the EU. For Brussels, the mere fact that the summit is taking place is considered a modest diplomatic achievement given current tensions.
Core Issues Dominating the Agenda
1. Trade Imbalances and Market Access
One of the most pressing issues is the EU’s trade deficit with China, which has ballooned to nearly €400 billion in goods. The EU continues to raise concerns over Chinese subsidies, tariff barriers, and restricted market access, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles. China’s control over rare-earth elements—critical to many European industries—and its occasional export restrictions are also viewed by Brussels as a strategic pressure point.
2. Geopolitical Disagreements
Geopolitical tensions are also shaping the summit’s tone. The EU has criticized China for its perceived support of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while Beijing insists its relationship with Moscow is part of broader strategic balancing. Meanwhile, the EU is pushing for action on Chinese industrial overcapacity, fair investment rules, and more resilient supply chains.
3. Shifting Global Alliances
The backdrop to the summit is also defined by growing global uncertainty. With former U.S. President Donald Trump threatening to impose 30% tariffs on European imports, the EU is preparing a €100 billion countermeasure. This transatlantic pressure is prompting Brussels to assert a stronger stance in Beijing, while simultaneously exploring closer relations with Asian democracies as part of its long-term goal of achieving strategic autonomy.
Looking Ahead: Modest Goals, Limited Outcomes
Analysts suggest that no major agreements or joint declarations are likely to emerge from this summit. Instead, the event is expected to serve as a symbolic signal of continued engagement, rather than a venue for resolving deep-seated disagreements.
Despite this, there may be limited areas for cooperation, such as climate change, biodiversity, and green technologies. Still, the two sides remain far apart on fundamental issues like trade fairness, investment transparency, and geopolitical trust.
Conclusion
The 25th EU–China Summit arrives at a time of complex global dynamics and mutual mistrust. While it marks an important milestone in EU–China relations, the likelihood of concrete progress is minimal. The summit ultimately reflects a broader diplomatic effort to maintain dialogue and manage divergence, amid rising geopolitical competition, economic friction, and transatlantic uncertainty.
