Lithuania has warned that Russia could use captured Ukrainian drones to stage a false-flag attack against critical infrastructure in the Baltic region, potentially seeking to create confusion and test NATO’s unity.
Lithuanian Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas said national intelligence agencies could not rule out a scenario in which Ukrainian-made drones seized by Russian forces were used in attacks designed to appear as though they had been launched by Kyiv.
According to Kaunas, such an operation could target important energy, transport or communications facilities in Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia. He said the suspected objective would be to weaken public support for Ukraine, create divisions among NATO members and raise doubts about the alliance’s ability to respond collectively.
The warning follows earlier intelligence assessments suggesting that Russia may be considering acts of sabotage or hybrid attacks against infrastructure in the region. Lithuania has strengthened security around strategic energy and transport sites as a precaution.
The Baltic states have also faced several drone incursions during the war in Ukraine, some of which officials believe may have resulted from Russian electronic interference disrupting navigation systems. The incidents have increased calls for stronger NATO air and anti-drone defences along the alliance’s eastern flank.
Moscow has rejected the Lithuanian accusations as unfounded. The Kremlin has argued that such warnings are being used to justify NATO’s military expansion near Russia’s borders and has separately accused Baltic countries of assisting Ukrainian drone operations—claims denied by Ukraine and the Baltic governments.
Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are members of both NATO and the European Union and have been among Ukraine’s strongest supporters since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Lithuanian officials maintain that any attempted provocation would not weaken the country’s commitment to Ukraine or undermine NATO solidarity.
